U.S. Threat to Blockade Hormuz Sets Up Risky New Showdown

President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. military would blockade the Strait of Hormuz sets up a risky new showdown that could draw American forces into a prolonged struggle to control the strategic chokepoint while compounding the global economic damage caused by the conflict.

Hours after U.S. peace talks with Iran broke down in Pakistan, Trump said that the Navy would begin the blockade, “seek and interdict” vessels that had paid Iran to get through the strait, and then start clearing the waterway of sea mines. “He added that any Iranian forces that fired on U.S. troops or commercial shipping would be “BLOWN TO HELL.”

The blockade is set to begin Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, according to U.S. Central Command. The move comes after Vice President JD Vance ended 21 hours of talks in Islamabad without an agreement, blaming Tehran for refusing U.S. terms on its nuclear program.

The move opens a volatile new phase in the six-week conflict, shifting from punishing strikes on military targets to an open-ended campaign to police the strait. The prospect of such a blockade could set off a high-stakes battle that tests which side has the higher threshold for pain—Tehran or global markets.

Current and former U.S. defense officials say the blockade would buy the U.S. time to sweep mines and establish a protected passage for commercial shipping, but any renewed Iranian attacks would quickly complicate the mission. 

The Pentagon referred questions about the blockade and how it would be enforced to the White House. “The United States Navy is the greatest in the world and has more than enough resources to sustain the blockade,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said. “The President is leveraging the strength of our U.S. Navy to secure the Strait of Hormuz, end Iran’s extortion, and send a clear message that the United States will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”

The narrow waterway is exposed to Iran’s coastline, and any operations there will remain vulnerable to mines, drones and attack boats. While Trump has repeatedly touted the U.S. military’s decimation of Iran’s navy, the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still maintains much of its extensive fleet of more nimble speedboats that it uses to control the strait. More than 60% of those fast-attack craft and speedboat vessels remain intact and continue to pose a threat, according to Farzin Nadimi, an Iran-focused senior fellow with the Washington Institute, a U.S.-based think tank.

While Trump said on Sunday that “numerous countries” would be helping U.S. forces impose the blockade, it was still unclear what such a coalition would look like. Some European and Persian Gulf officials had previously signaled support for a multinational effort to restore free passage through the strait, though some key countries said this would depend on a lasting cease-fire and an international mandate.

Trump on Sunday conceded that energy prices might not fall soon and could be higher around the time U.S. voters head to polls in midterm elections this fall. Asked on Fox News if he thinks oil and gas will be lower then, Trump said: “I hope so. I mean, I think so. It could be…or maybe a little bit higher. It should be around the same. I think this won’t be that much longer.”

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